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Synn
Last seen 3 years ago
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2014

2014-06-01 21:47:54
rating 4
2014-04-27 01:44:08
rating 4.2
2014-02-23 09:17:27
rating 3.3
2014-02-22 16:54:35
rating 5.3
2014-02-09 07:44:04
rating 4.7
2014-01-07 01:44:42
rating 3.8

2013

2013-12-30 10:22:35
rating 3.1
2013-11-03 15:57:42
rating 5.2
2013-09-26 16:53:11
rating 3.8
2013-07-04 17:00:18
rating 2.3
2013-07-01 00:31:26
rating 4.6
2013-05-03 23:29:00
rating 5.1
2013-04-30 17:21:17
rating 4.9
2013-04-08 00:42:06
rating 5
2013-03-31 18:20:09
rating 5.5
2013-01-22 02:25:31
rating 4.2

2012

2012-12-25 02:47:13
rating 4.9
2012-11-26 01:03:47
rating 4.2
2012-11-22 19:06:56
rating 5.1
2012-11-22 18:27:01
rating 3.5
2012-11-18 18:57:48
rating 5.3
2012-11-08 23:56:41
rating 3.8
2012-10-22 02:32:32
rating 5.2
2012-08-11 00:10:02
rating 2.4
2012-07-28 00:58:52
rating 4.2
2012-07-14 07:45:26
rating 4
2012-07-08 21:45:07
rating 3.6

2011

2011-10-26 00:02:18
rating 2.6
2011-10-15 23:56:19
rating 3.3
2011-10-15 21:28:53
rating 2.9
2011-10-15 21:10:27
rating 3
2011-10-15 21:03:52
rating 3.1
2011-10-15 20:50:04
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2011-10-15 20:41:58
rating 3.1
2011-10-15 20:34:18
rating 3.5
2011-10-15 20:25:22
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2011-10-12 04:30:55
rating 5.6
2011-05-02 07:13:01
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2011-02-06 17:26:11
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2010

2010-07-11 23:17:43
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2010-07-05 18:59:19
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2010-01-21 01:55:00
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2010-01-01 19:44:17
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2009

2009-11-13 02:26:53
rating 4.5
2009-04-05 19:09:44
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2009-03-17 02:56:27
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2009-01-07 17:37:31
rating 3.8

2008

2008-12-25 17:04:50
rating 3.9
2008-12-12 22:14:49
rating 4.3
2008-09-05 21:59:14
rating 3.4
2008-08-12 03:29:08
rating 3.8
2008-07-20 02:06:56
rating 3.9
2008-04-23 18:30:21
rating 5
2008-04-23 18:09:29
rating 4.6
2008-03-18 17:33:58
rating 4.9

2007

2007-11-25 06:12:06
rating 4.8
2007-07-30 23:34:24
rating 3.3
2007-07-30 23:11:47
rating 3.3
2007-07-30 18:58:08
rating 4.3
2013-11-03 15:57:42
33 votes, rating 5.2
Dice, Luck, and the game of Bloodbowl
So while there is a thread about the RNG going around, I figured I would write a blog to talk about how dice apply to a game of Bloodbowl.

First of all, do you know how many 6 sided dice are rolled in a game of BB? Do you think it is 200? 300? Maybe 500?

Well back in the old javabowl days, in order to get a match uploaded, the client would save a ZIP file to your computer. This zip file included a DAT (text log) that actually contained a distribution of dice for the entire game that were rolled by both coaches (was never broken out by coach).

When I used to look at these files, I found that the average game of mine had over 1,000 D6s rolled!

Think about it very carefully... A successful 2db breaks down to this:

-2db
-2d6 for av
-2d6 for injury

That's 6 dice right there for a block. A pitch invasion often produced 22 D6s. KO rolls add up as well.

Knowing that a game can feature 1,000+ dice helps you realize the following (feel free to check my math):

-Snakeeyes (1/36) comes up about 13 times in a match (1/36 * 500: 500 being a pair of dice).
-It is more likely to have a game feature a quad something (can be 1's or can be 6's) than to not see a quad (1/1296 odds of the same value 4 times in a row).

If you want to understand how to manage luck it basically comes down to executing each turn so that if you have an early fail, it hurts you the least, but if you have a hot run of dice, you are able to capitalize.

Finally, remember the notion of 'Safe Moves First'. Standing up and moving around are actions that in of themselves have no chance of turn ending fail (unless you are dodging or gfis).

__Synn
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Comments
Posted by Throweck on 2013-11-03 16:20:40
Synn, I like the maths. It worked with me and I am half a bottle of cheap wine into my day!

It's a dice game. Therefore elements of chance/luck. If people want to play a game based on just skill then chess, connect 4 and Pictionary are good contenders.

There is no rule in the universe that says 'Oh, I have rolled a 1. Therefore it is an impossibility that my next roll will be a 1. /rolls dice. Crap it's a 1'

Luck happens. Embrace it. It is only a game.
Posted by SerenadeOfSorrow on 2013-11-03 16:40:12
I used to blame the rng on my games but since realizing im just pants I've had more fun. ..i now do all non dice rolling moves 1st try and minimise the risk involved. .im still crap but now i can blame myself not the rng
Posted by SerenadeOfSorrow on 2013-11-03 16:41:48
I'd also like to thank harvest mouse for opening my eyes you've given great advice and some well needed criticism. ...get your butt back to administration if you ever can. ..you haven't improved my game but you've improved my outlook so much and you deserve a rightful thank you
Posted by happygrue on 2013-11-03 17:38:44
I was told that there would be no math.
Posted by koadah on 2013-11-03 19:42:39
I guess that we need to stop telling people that they were unlucky when it should be pretty obvious that they stink. ;)
Posted by gansus on 2013-11-03 19:50:13
Nice, entry, man! It is always nice to read something one has been talking about to people many times written with numbers taken from real games. And i even whine and so on when i am not lucky, so i guess i should learn something else from this, too ;)

Apart from that, the number i do not like is the "13 times in a match on average" for snakeeyes. The real number is much lower because:
-As you already said, ball handling, armor and kos are taken into the 500 dice rolled for each coach (on average). Same with first kick rolls and so on, but i really think the number of those is neglictible. But the number or armor rolls definitely is NOT, and same with injury ones. Dont have the .zip right here and i am too lazy to watch a match and start counting now, but i think 100 to 300 of the dice are NOT BLOCK DICE only because of this 1st reason. We go back to about 300 or so being block dice.
-Apart from that, you made 1/36 (chance of getting snakeeyes) x 500 dice. Not it would be (1/36)x300 and BESIDES you cant get snakeeyes from JUST ONE DIE BLOCKS, can you? So you sould make the (1/36)x(300/2), as you can only get that result for 2 dice rolls. That goes to 4 doubleskulls for 1 coach in a whole game.

That is much more accurate in statistical terms, but also much more similar to reality, in my experience. Problem is sometimes one coach gets the 8 snakeeyes and opponent goes with.... yep, zero ;). But thats luck, and thats BB.
Posted by Chainsaw on 2013-11-03 20:16:13
Stop with the fxvking sense man.

I prefer believing each bad dice roll is Jesus' spite.
Posted by Chainsaw on 2013-11-03 20:17:14
Oh, and when you play 1000 games on the site - a few of those might deviate from the 13 snakes in a game. That means some will be a whole lot more and some may even be none!
Posted by PigStar-69 on 2013-11-03 20:25:49
bollocks but rated 6 anyways. you fecking nerd
Posted by Jeffro on 2013-11-03 20:49:53
You should be hanged by the neck over a volcano...

(!) ;)
Posted by chimp2010 on 2013-11-04 00:40:53
Blasphemy!!!
Posted by Dalfort on 2013-11-04 10:33:31
the KO rolls can contain snakeeyes, as our difinition of snakeyes is 2 consecutive 1's rolled. I have seen 5 straight 1's rolled for KO rolls... THEY COUNT!!!

btw I know I am crap, but I am also unlucky :p
Posted by fabik on 2013-11-04 12:44:47
Totally agree with the post but..
No Matter of how many dices you roll, some rolls are criticals and if you fail that rolls your match may be doomed.

Luck it's just part of the game; skill, positioning and tactic may drastically reduce the impact of dice rolls but can't remove their impact on the game.
If they could simply the game should not require rolls at all.
Posted by CastleMan on 2013-11-04 16:12:58
i dont believe in math
Posted by Smeat on 2013-11-04 23:32:10
For a long time I've believed that, with so many dice-rolls and so many different ways to measure the dice, for any coach ~something~ was bound to go wrong, and go wrong big (or go "way too right" for your oppo). Maybe you lose the Cas dice battle, maybe your oppo makes every Ag 2 dodge they try - something.

Which leads to the easy and all-too-common "...Well, if THOSE dice hadn't been so lopsided, I woulda won..." rationale. Which is crap - ~something~ will go wrong. While in some games nothing may seem to go ~right~, it would be a jawdropping rare game that ~something~ doesn't go way wrong..

I knew there were a lot, but never estimated quite that many. Just supports that belief even more.