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2016-11-15 11:06:42
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DLE Newsflash: Exciting race for play-offs
With two rounds left of the season, the Siegfrid Heidenhammer Conference is heating up. Several exciting races will likely be decided only when the final match is played. This is the current situation as described by Günther Schiele, our statistics expert.

Günther: "The least exciting division is probably the East division. Drakenhof Legion has secured this division a long time ago, and with 20 points they have also secured a by in the first round. Grenzburg is 7 points behind with two games left. In the West division, Kemperbad Knights clinched the division with their 12th round win against the Griffins. They now have 20 points and the head-to-head advantage on the Sharks, since they won both games against them. Thus, their round 13 loss against the Broekwater Patriots hurt their pride more than their position."

Günther: "In the South division, there is still an exciting race between the Wreckers and the Buccaneers. Monte Castello's heroes have a 1 point lead, but the Buccaneers hold the head-to-head tiebreaker after their round 11 victory. Both teams are facing the same opponents, the San Luis 49ers and the Rotenbach Razorbacks. Both of these teams still have a chance for the play-offs, so they are likely to play hard in their matches. My money here are on the Buccaneers, but only by a small margin, like 55-45 or something."

Günther: "And then, the North division. We all thought that Cascade had lost it after their 1-4 rout by the Vikings, but the team raised itself to new heights in the convincing 2-1 victory in round 13 last night in Emsk. Can they do it? In their last match, they have Flashfurt Universe, SuperBowl Champion from season 1 and divisional champions in the KFC North. The Vikings have two matches left, against the Wolfskins and the Foxes. Coach Vatn has already officially given up on the divisional title, since the Vikings hold the head-to-head tiebreaker, but I think the Vikings have shown signs of weakness in the second part of the season. In my opinion, Vikings are still heavily favoured, but the race is not yet done. I put it at 70-30 Vikings."

Günther: "The wild cards are harder to call. In my opinion, with Vikings winning the North division and Buccaneers the South, four teams are involved in the fight. Sharks already have 16 points, and are the most likely team to take a wild card spot, even though their trend has not been positive. Even if they loose their last two matches (Griffins and Marauders), they can make it, but loosing against the Marauders would be a sensation, since they haven't a single point so far. Cascade has 15 points after their round 13 win against the Cardinals, and have a realistic chance to get 16 if they can pull off a draw against the Universe. Greenskins have 13 points and two matches left, and could reach 16. Finally, the Wreckers have 14 right now with two matches left, but against tough opponents 49ers and Razorbacks. Its a tough call, but here is my guess: Sharks lose against the Griffins but beat the Marauders to take one wild card spot at 18 points. Cascade takes the other spot with a draw against Universe giving them 16 points. Greenskins wins against the Sluggers but loose against the River Bandits for a total of 15 points, and the Wreckers struggle their way to a draw against the Razorbacks, but loose to the 49ers, and also ends up with 15 points. But then again, I'm from Carroburg, so I'm probably not totally neutral... Particularly interesting matches to follow will be the Universe vs Cascade round 14 match, and the four matchups between Wreckers/Buccaneers from SHC and 49ers/Razorbacks from KFC."

Brought to you by Günther Schiele, Carroburg Tageszeitung
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Posted by bghandras on 2016-11-15 11:30:55
And what happens if all of those teams end up with 16 points?

I the case of multi-team tie of points, the conference win% is the most likely tiebreaker for wildcard. Currently by those teams:
Cascade 50%
Sharks 78%
Greenskins 50%
Buccaneers 50%
Wreckers 55%
Vikings 61%

Cascade and Vikings ar division rivals, and Buccaneers and Wreckers are division rivals, so if they tie in points, the division winner will be decided by (most probably) face to face result or division win%.

As Günther stated, Bucs owe that tiebreaker against Wreckers. Vikings also own that tiebreaker against Cascade.
Posted by SpecialOne on 2016-11-15 14:21:12
Ah! This is great reading!

Will you be doing an analysis of KFC also?